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Gross domestic product

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"GDP" redirects here. For other uses, see GDP (disambiguation).
CIA World Factbook 2008 figures of total nominal GDP (bottom) compared to PPP-adjusted GDP (top)
Countries by 2008 GDP (nominal) per capita (IMF, October 2008 estimate)
GDP (PPP) per capita

The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure of a country's overall economic output. It is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is often positively correlated with the standard of living, though its use as a stand-in for measuring the standard of living has come under increasing criticism and many countries are actively exploring alternative measures to GDP for that purpose. GDP can be determined in three ways, all of which should in principle give the same result. They are the product (or output) approach, the income approach, and the expenditure approach. The most direct of the three is the product approach, which sums the outputs of every class of enterprise to arrive at the total. The expenditure approach works on the principle that all of the product must be bought by somebody, therefore the value of the total product must be equal to people's total expenditures in buying things. The income approach works on the principle that the incomes of the productive factors ("producers," colloquially) must be equal to the value of their product, and determines GDP by finding the sum of all producers' incomes.

Example: the expenditure method:

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exportsimports), or

GDP = C + Inv + G + \left ( eX - iM \right )

In the name "Gross Domestic Product,"
"Gross" means that GDP measures production regardless of the various uses to which that production can be put. Production can be used for immediate consumption, for investment in new fixed assets or inventories, or for replacing depreciated fixed assets. If depreciation of fixed assets is subtracted from GDP, the result is called the Net domestic product; it is a measure of how much product is available for consumption or adding to the nation's wealth. In the above formula for GDP by the expenditure method, if net investment (which is gross investment minus depreciation) is substituted for gross investment, then net domestic product is obtained.

"Domestic" means that GDP measures production that takes place within the country's borders. In the expenditure-method equation given above, the exports-minus-imports term is necessary in order to null out expenditures on things not produced in the country (imports) and add in things produced but not sold in the country (exports).

Economists (since Keynes) have preferred to split the general consumption term into two parts; private consumption, and public sector (or government) spending. Two advantages of dividing total consumption this way in theoretical macroeconomics are:

Gross domestic product comes under the heading of national accounts, which is a subject in macroeconomics. Economic measurement is called econometrics.

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Product approach

Usually in this approach the producer units (corporated and unincorporated enterprises which together form the business sector, "pure" households, governments and non-profit institutions serving households) of an economy are classified into classes of industries: agriculture, construction, manufacturing, etc. Their outputs are estimated largely on the basis of surveys which businesses fill out, but also the services from dwellings owned by households are counted towards production. To avoid "double-counting" in cases where the output of a producer unit is not a final good or service, but serves as intermediate input (intermediate consumption) into another producer unit, either only final goods and services outputs must be counted, or a "value added" approach must be taken, where what is counted is not the total value output of a producer unit, but its value added: the difference between the value of its gross output and the value of its intermediate consumption. Value added is obtained as a balancing item in the production account of the national accounts.

Gross Value Added (GVA) = Sum of gross value added by all producer units = Gross output - intermediate consumption of goods and services to produce the output.

For market producer sales is usually the largest part of output. But producer units may also produce output for own final use (own final consumption or own gross fixed capital formation) or add their output of goods to their inventories.

Depending on how gross value added has been calculated, it may be necessary to make an adjustment to it before it can be considered equal to GDP. This is because GDP is the market value of goods and services – the price paid by the customer – but the price received by the producer may be different than this if the government taxes or subsidises the product. For example, if there is a sales tax:

Producer's price + sales tax = market price

If taxes and subsidies have not already been computed as part of GVA, we must compute GDP as:

GDP = GVA + Taxes on products - Subsidies on products

Expenditure method

In contemporary economies, most things produced are produced for sale, and sold. Therefore, measuring the total expenditure of money used to buy things is a way of measuring production. This is known as the expenditure method of calculating GDP. Note that if you knit yourself a sweater, it is production but does not get counted as GDP because it is never sold. Sweater-knitting is a small part of the economy, but if one counts some major activities such as child-rearing (generally unpaid) as production, GDP ceases to be an accurate indicator of production.

Components of GDP by expenditure

GDP (Y) is a sum of Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (X - M).

Y = C + I + G + (X − M)

Here is a description of each GDP component:

A fully equivalent definition is that GDP (Y) is the sum of final consumption expenditure (FCE), gross capital formation (GCF), and net exports (X - M).

Y = FCE + GCF+ (X − M)

FCE can then be further broken down by three sectors (households, governments and non-profit institutions serving households) and GCF by five sectors (non-financial corporations, financial corporations, households, governments and non-profit institutions serving households). The advantage of this second definition is that expenditure is sytematically broken down, firstly, by type of final use (final consumption or capital formation) and, secondly, by sectors making the expenditure, whereas the first definition partly follows a mixed delimitation concept by type of final use and sector.

Note that C, G, and I are expenditures on final goods and services; expenditures on intermediate goods and services do not count. (Intermediate goods and services are those used by businesses to produce other goods and services within the accounting year. )

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is responsible for calculating the national accounts in the United States, :In general, the source data for the expenditures components are considered more reliable than those for the income components [see income method, below]."

Examples of GDP component variables

C, I, G, and NX(net exports): If a person spends money to renovate a hotel to increase occupancy rates, the spending represents private investment, but if he buys shares in a consortium to execute the renovation, it is saving. The former is included when measuring GDP (in I), the latter is not. However, when the consortium conducted its own expenditure on renovation, that expenditure would be included in GDP.

If a hotel is a private home, spending for renovation would be measured as consumption, but if a government agency converts the hotel into an office for civil servants, the spending would be included in the public sector spending, or G.

If the renovation involves the purchase of a chandelier from abroad, that spending would be counted as C, G, or I (depending on whether a private individual, the government, or a business is doing the renovation), but then counted again as an import and subtracted from the GDP so that GDP counts only goods produced within the country.

If a domestic producer is paid to make the chandelier for a foreign hotel, the payment would not be counted as C, G, or I, but would be counted as an export.

GDP real growth rates for 2008

Income method

Another way of measuring GDP is to measure total income. If GDP is calculated this way it is sometimes called Gross Domestic Income (GDI), or GDP(I). GDI should provide the same amount as the expenditure method described above. (By definition, GDI = GDP. In practice, however, measurement errors will make the two figures slightly off when reported by national statistical agencies.)

Total income can be subdivided according to various schemes, leading to various formulae for GDP measured by the income approach. A common one is:

GDP = compensation of employees + gross operating surplus + gross mixed income + taxes less subsidies on production and imports
GDP = COE + GOS + GMI + TP & M - SP & M

The sum of COE, GOS and GMI is called total factor income; it is the income of all of the factors of production in society. It measures the value of GDP at factor (basic) prices. The difference between basic prices and final prices (those used in the expenditure calculation) is the total taxes and subsidies that the government has levied or paid on that production. So adding taxes less subsidies on production and imports converts GDP at factor cost to GDP(I).

Total factor income is also sometimes expressed as:

Total factor income = Employee compensation + Corporate profits + Proprieter's income + Rental income + Net interest

Yet another formula for GDP by the income method is:

GDP = R + I + P + SA + W

where R : rents
I : interests
P : profits
SA : statistical adjustments (corporate income taxes, dividends, undistributed corporate profits)
W : wages
Note the mnemonic, "ripsaw".

The production boundary

Not all useful human activity is counted in GDP. Indeed, not everything that economists recognise as "production" is counted in GDP. The economists who compile GDP readily admit even the latter point. However, it raises several questions: What does GDP actually measure? Is it a useful figure? Does it mean what most people think it means?

The economists who compile national accounts speak of a "production boundary" that delimits what will be counted as GDP.

"One of the fundamental questions that must be addressed in preparing the national economic accounts is how to define the production boundary – that is, what parts of the myriad human activities are to be included in or excluded from the measure of the economic production."

All output for market is at least in theory included within the boundary. Market output is defined as that which is sold for "economically significant" prices; economically significant prices are "prices which have a significant influence on the amounts producers are willing to supply and purchasers wish to buy." An exception is that illegal goods and services are often excluded even if they are sold at economically significant prices (Australia and the United States exclude them).

This leaves non-market output. It is partly excluded and partly included. First, "natural processes without human involvment or direction" are excluded. Also, there must be a person or institution that owns or is entitled to compensation for the product. An example of what is included and excluded by these criteria is given by the United States' national accounts agency: "the growth of trees in an uncultivated forest is not included in production, but the harvesting of the trees from that forest is included."

Within the limits so far described, the boundary is further constricted by "functional considerations." The Australian Bureau for Statistics explains this: "The national accounts are primarily constructed to assist governments and others to make market-based macroeconomic policy decisions, including analysis of markets and factors affecting market performance, such as inflation and unemployment." Consequently, production that is, according to them, "relatively independent and isolated from markets," or "difficult to value in an economically meaningful way" [ie., difficult to put a price on] is excluded. Thus excluded are services provided by people to members of their own families free of charge, such as child rearing, meal preparation, cleaning, transportation, entertainment of family members, emotional support, care of the elderly. Most other production for own (or one's family's) use is also excluded, with two notable exceptions which are given in the list later in this section.

Nonmarket outputs that are included within the boundary are listed below. Since, by definition, they do not have a market price, the complilers of GDP must impute a value to them, usually either the cost of the goods and services used to produce them, or the value of a similar item that is sold on the market.

GDP vs GNI

GDP can be contrasted with gross national product (GNP) or gross national income (GNI). The difference is that GDP defines its scope according to location, while GNP defines its scope according to ownership. GDP is product produced within a country's borders; GNP is product produced by enterprises owned by a country's citizens. The two would be the same if all of the productive enterprises in a country were owned by its own citizens, but foreign ownership makes GDP and GNP non-identical. Production within a country's borders, but by an enterprise owned by somebody outside the country, counts as part of its GDP but not its GNP; on the other hand, production by an enterprise located outside the country, but owned by one of its citizens, counts as part of its GNP but not its GDP.

To take the United States as an example, the U.S.'s GNP is the value of output produced by American-owned firms, regardless of where the firms are located.

Gross national income (GNI) equals GDI plus income receipts from the rest of the world minus income payments to the rest of the world.

In 1991, the United States switched from using GNP to using GDP as its primary measure of production. The relationship between United States GDP and GNP is shown in table 1.7.5 of the National Income and Product Accounts .

International standards

The international standard for measuring GDP is contained in the book System of National Accounts (1993), which was prepared by representatives of the International Monetary Fund, European Union, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations and World Bank. The publication is normally referred to as SNA93 to distinguish it from the previous edition published in 1968 (called SNA68).

SNA93 provides a set of rules and procedures for the measurement of national accounts. The standards are designed to be flexible, to allow for differences in local statistical needs and conditions.

Wiki letter w.svg This section requires expansion.

National measurement

Within each country GDP is normally measured by a national government statistical agency, as private sector organizations normally do not have access to the information required (especially information on expenditure and production by governments).

Main article: National agencies responsible for GDP measurement

Interest rates

Net interest expense is a transfer payment in all sectors except the financial sector. Net interest expenses in the financial sector are seen as production and value added and are added to GDP.

Adjustments to GDP

When comparing GDP figures from one year to another, it is desirable to compensate for changes in the value of money – inflation or deflation. The raw GDP figure as given by the equations above is called the nominal, or historical, or current, GDP. To make it more meaningful for year-to-year comparisons, it may be multiplied by the ratio between the value of money in the year the GDP was measured and the value of money in some base year. For example, suppose a country's GDP in 1990 was $100 million and its GDP in 2000 was $300 million; but suppose that inflation had halved the value of its currency over that period. To meaningfully compare its 2000 GDP to its 1990 GDP we could multiply the 2000 GDP by one-half, to make it relative to 1990 as a base year. The result would be that the 2000 GDP equals $300 million x one-half = $150 million, in 1990 monetary terms. We would see that the country's GDP had, realistically, increased by 1.5 times over that period, not 3 times, as it might appear from the raw GDP data. The GDP adjusted for changes in money-value in this way is called the real, or constant, GDP.

The factor used to convert GDP from current to constant values in this way is called the GDP deflator. Unlike the Consumer price index, which measures inflation (or deflation – rarely!) in the price of household consumer goods, the GDP deflator measures changes in the prices all domestically produced goods and services in an economy – including investment goods and government services, as well as household consumption goods.

Constant-GDP figures allow us to calculate a GDP growth rate, which tells us how much a country's production has increased (or decreased, if the growth rate is negative) compared to the previous year.

Real GDP growth rate for year n = [(Real GDP in year n) - (Real GDP in year n - 1)]/ (Real GDP in year n - 1)

Another thing that it may be desirable to compensate for is population growth. If a country's GDP doubled over some period but its population tripled, the increase in GDP may not be deemed such a great accomplishment: the average person in the country is producing less than they were before. Per-capita GDP is the measure compensated for population growth.

Cross-border comparison

The level of GDP in different countries may be compared by converting their value in national currency according to either the current currency exchange rate, or the purchase power parity exchange rate.

The ranking of countries may differ significantly based on which method is used.

There is a clear pattern of the purchasing power parity method decreasing the disparity in GDP between high and low income (GDP) countries, as compared to the current exchange rate method. This finding is called the Penn effect.

For more information, see Measures of national income and output.

Standard of living and GDP

GDP per capita is not a measurement of the standard of living in an economy. However, it is often used as such an indicator, on the rationale that all citizens would benefit from their country's increased economic production. Similarly, GDP per capita is not a measure of personal income. GDP may increase while incomes for the majority of a country's citizens may even decrease or change disproportionally. For example, in the US from 1990 to 2006 the earnings (adjusted for inflation) of individual workers, in private industry and services, increased by less than 0.5% per year while GDP (adjusted for inflation) increased about 3.6% per year over the same period.

The major advantage of GDP per capita as an indicator of standard of living is that it is measured frequently, widely and consistently. It is measured frequently in that most countries provide information on GDP on a quarterly basis, which allows a user to spot trends regularly. It is measured widely in that some measure of GDP is available for almost every country in the world, allowing comparisons to be made between countries. It is measured consistently in that the technical definition of GDP is relatively consistent among countries.

The major disadvantage is that it is not, strictly speaking, a measure of standard of living. GDP is intended to be a measure of particular types of economic activity within a particular country. Nothing about the definition of GDP suggests it is necessarily a measure of standard of living. For instance, in an extreme example, a country which exported 100 per cent of its production and imported nothing would still have a high GDP, but a very poor standard of living.

The argument in favor of using GDP is not that it is a good indicator of the standard of living, but that, all other things being equal, the standard of living tends to increase when GDP per capita increases. As such, GDP can be a proxy for the standard of living, rather than a direct measure. The sometimes use of GDP per capita as a proxy of labor productivity is also problemmatic.

Limitations of GDP to judge the health of an economy

GDP is widely used by economists to gauge the health of an economy, as its variations are relatively quickly identified. However, its value as an indicator for the standard of living is considered to be limited. Not only that, but if the aim of economic activity is to produce ecologically sustainable increases in the overall human standard of living, GDP is a perverse measurement; it treats loss of ecosystem services as a benefit instead of a cost. Other criticisms of how the GDP is used include:

Simon Kuznets in his very first report to the US Congress in 1934 said:

...the welfare of a nation [can] scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income...

In 1962, Kuznets stated:

Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs and returns, and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth of what and for what.

Alternatives to GDP

Some people have looked beyond standard of living at a broader sense of quality of life or well-being:

Lists of countries by their GDP

See also

Bibliography

Australian Bureau for Statistics, Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Mathods, 2000. Retrieved November 2009. In depth explanations of how GDP and other national accounts items are determined.

United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product AccountsPDF. Retrieved November 2009. In depth explanations of how GDP and other national accounts items are determined.

References

  1. ^ Sullivan, Arthur; Steven M. Sheffrin (1996). Economics: Principles in action. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 074589: Pearson Prentice Hall. pp. 57, 305. ISBN 0-13-063085-3. 
  2. ^ French President seeks alternatives to GDP, The Guardian 14-09-2009.
    European Parliament, Policy Department Economic and Scientific Policy: Beyond GDP StudyPDF (1.47 MB)
  3. ^ World Bank, Statistical Manual >> National Accounts >> GDP – final output, retrieved October 2009.
    "User's guide: Background information on GDP and GDP deflator". HM Treasury. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/data_gdp_backgd.htm. 
    "Measuring the Economy: A Primer on GDP and the National Income and Product Accounts" (PDF). Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf. 
  4. ^ This calculation can be seen in United Kingdom, Annual Abstract of StatisticsPDF (2.70 MB), 2008, p 254, Table 16.2 "gross domestic product and national income, current prices," near the top of the table. The United States appears to already include taxes minus subsidies in GVA, and thus equate it directly to GDP (BEA, Concepts and Methods of the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, section 2-9).
  5. ^ Thayer Watkins, San José State University Department of Economics, "Gross Domestic Product from the Transactions Table for an Economy", commentary to first table, " Transactions Table for an Economy". (Page retrieved November 2009.)
  6. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, chap. 2.
  7. ^ United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, A guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United StatesPDF, page 5; retrieved November 2009. Another term, "business current transfer payments," may be added. Also, the document indicates that Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) and Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) are applied to the proprieter's income and corporate profits terms; and CCAdj is applied to rental income.
  8. ^ BEA, Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, p 12.
  9. ^ Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000, sections 3.5 and 4.15.
  10. ^ This and the following statement on entitlement to compensation are from Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000, section 4.6.
  11. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2.
  12. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2.
  13. ^ Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000, section 4.4.
  14. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2; and Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000, section 4.4.
  15. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-4.
  16. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-4.
  17. ^ Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-5.
  18. ^ United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Glossary, "GDP". Retrieved November 2009.
  19. ^ U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  20. ^ HM Treasury, Background information on GDP and GDP deflator
    Some of the complications involved in comparing national accounts from different years are suggested in this World Bank document.
  21. ^ Statistical Abstract of the United States 2008. Tables 623 and 647
  22. ^ What is up with the GDP? - Frank Shostak - Mises Institute
  23. ^ Simon Kuznets, 1934. "National Income, 1929-1932". 73rd US Congress, 2d session, Senate document no. 124, page 7. http://library.bea.gov/u?/SOD,888
  24. ^ Simon Kuznets. "How To Judge Quality". The New Republic, October 20, 1962
  25. ^ "World Bank wealth estimates". http://go.worldbank.org/KB1R94JYF0. 
  26. ^ "First European Quality of Life Survey". http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0591.htm. 

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